MIGRACIONA TRANZICIJA U SRBIJI: DEMOGRAFSKA PERSPEKTIVA.

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  • Additional Information
    • Alternate Title:
      Migration Transition in Serbia: Demographic Perspective.
    • Subject Terms:
    • Author-Supplied Keywords:
      KLJUČNE REČI
      migration flow
      population policy
      probabilistic population projection
      KLJUČNE REČI
      migracioni tokovi
      migration flow
      populaciona politika
      population policy
      probabilističke projekcije
      probabilistic population projection
      Serbia
      Srbija
      Language of Keywords: English; Serbian
    • Abstract:
      From the demographic point of view, the future of Serbia's population is relatively certain at least in the next three to four decades. However, the decreasing and ageing of the population are considered to be very certain processes in the much longer term. Although replacement fertility is an essential condition for long-term survival of any population, it is shown that only an immigration impulse could enable desired effects of the potential fertility recovery in Serbia in the longer perspective. Such a migration transition (from net emigration to net immigration) would inevitably lead to increased socio-cultural diversity and require the development of integration strategies. If successful, policies to stimulate an increase in net migration provide an almost instant result. Apart from old immigration countries from Western Europe, this was the case with new immigration destinations located in Mediteranean and Central Europe, including some former socialist countries. When evaluating the future trend of international migration balance of Serbia, the experiences of the latter countries is used. The population dynamics model created for the purpose of the paper is based upon the probabilistic concept of projecting vital components. The main conclusion is that there is no demographic alternative to the migration transition in Serbia when it comes to sustainability of the social security systems in the coming decades, but the realization of such a scenario is still not clear from today's perspective, given the existing limitations of the socio-economic nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
    • Abstract:
      Sa demografskog aspekta, budućnost stanovništva Srbije je relativno izvesna barem u naredne tri do četiri decenije. Međutim, smanjenje populacije i demografsko starenje su dva procesa čiji je nastavak u Srbiji veoma izvesan i na mnogo duži rok. Iako je fertilitet na nivou proste reprodukcije neophodan uslov za dugoročni opstanak bilo koje populacije, pokazaćemo zašto je Srbiji u skorijoj budućnosti potreban i imigracioni impuls kako bi potencijalni oporavak plodnosti mogao imati željeni efekat u dužoj perspektivi. Takva migraciona tranzicija (od neto emigracije ka neto imigraciji) bi neminovno dovela do povećanja socio-kulturološkog diverziteta i zahtevala razvoj integracionih strategija. No, ako su uspešne, politike za stimulaciju povećanja neto migracije daju gotovo trenutan rezultat, što su u Evropi, pored poznatih imigracionih država u njenom ekonomski razvijenijem delu, iskusile i neke bivše socijalističke zemlje. Prilikom ocene budućeg trenda spoljno-migracionog bilansa Srbije, korišćena su iskustva ovih država, dok se za izradu celokupnog modela populacione dinamike pošlo od koncepta probabilističkih projekcija vitalnih komponenti. Osnovni zaključak je da ne postoji demografska alternativa migracionoj tranziciji u Srbiji kada je u pitanju održivost sistema socijalne zaštite u narednim decenijama, ali ostvarenje takvih scenarija još uvek nije izvesno iz današnje perspektive imajući u vidu postojeća ograničenja socio-ekonomske prirode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
    • Abstract:
      Copyright of Sociologija/Sociology: Journal of Sociology, Social Psychology & Social Anthropology is the property of MOD International and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
    • Author Affiliations:
      1Institut društvenih nauka, Beograd
    • ISSN:
      0038-0318
    • Accession Number:
      10.2298/SOC1302187N
    • Accession Number:
      91274396
  • Citations
    • ABNT:
      NIKITOVIĆ, V. Migraciona Tranzicija U Srbiji: Demografska Perspektiva. Sociologija/Sociology: Journal of Sociology, Social Psychology & Social Anthropology, [s. l.], v. 55, n. 2, p. 187–208, 2013. DOI 10.2298/SOC1302187N. Disponível em: http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=sih&AN=91274396. Acesso em: 27 set. 2020.
    • AMA:
      Nikitović V. Migraciona Tranzicija U Srbiji: Demografska Perspektiva. Sociologija/Sociology: Journal of Sociology, Social Psychology & Social Anthropology. 2013;55(2):187-208. doi:10.2298/SOC1302187N
    • APA:
      Nikitović, V. (2013). Migraciona Tranzicija U Srbiji: Demografska Perspektiva. Sociologija/Sociology: Journal of Sociology, Social Psychology & Social Anthropology, 55(2), 187–208. https://doi.org/10.2298/SOC1302187N
    • Chicago/Turabian: Author-Date:
      Nikitović, Vladimir. 2013. “Migraciona Tranzicija U Srbiji: Demografska Perspektiva.” Sociologija/Sociology: Journal of Sociology, Social Psychology & Social Anthropology 55 (2): 187–208. doi:10.2298/SOC1302187N.
    • Harvard:
      Nikitović, V. (2013) ‘Migraciona Tranzicija U Srbiji: Demografska Perspektiva’, Sociologija/Sociology: Journal of Sociology, Social Psychology & Social Anthropology, 55(2), pp. 187–208. doi: 10.2298/SOC1302187N.
    • Harvard: Australian:
      Nikitović, V 2013, ‘Migraciona Tranzicija U Srbiji: Demografska Perspektiva’, Sociologija/Sociology: Journal of Sociology, Social Psychology & Social Anthropology, vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 187–208, viewed 27 September 2020, .
    • MLA:
      Nikitović, Vladimir. “Migraciona Tranzicija U Srbiji: Demografska Perspektiva.” Sociologija/Sociology: Journal of Sociology, Social Psychology & Social Anthropology, vol. 55, no. 2, Apr. 2013, pp. 187–208. EBSCOhost, doi:10.2298/SOC1302187N.
    • Chicago/Turabian: Humanities:
      Nikitović, Vladimir. “Migraciona Tranzicija U Srbiji: Demografska Perspektiva.” Sociologija/Sociology: Journal of Sociology, Social Psychology & Social Anthropology 55, no. 2 (April 2013): 187–208. doi:10.2298/SOC1302187N.
    • Vancouver/ICMJE:
      Nikitović V. Migraciona Tranzicija U Srbiji: Demografska Perspektiva. Sociologija/Sociology: Journal of Sociology, Social Psychology & Social Anthropology [Internet]. 2013 Apr [cited 2020 Sep 27];55(2):187–208. Available from: http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=sih&AN=91274396